An Honest Conversation About National Polls And Predicting Elections
It all comes down to the Electoral College, which means those national polls you're seeing don't really tell you a ton.By Kate Grumke, Zach Toombs | August 12, 2016
Zach Toombs: In reporting on politics, an important thing to remember is that national polling only gets you so far.
Kate Grumke: If it really were just "every vote is equal," then yeah, those national polls would tell us a lot. But that's not how it works. Because of the Electoral College, states are weighed in a different way. Every Wyoming individual vote counts about four times as much as an individual Texas vote, so people in Wyoming have four times the power than people in Texas, and it's just because of the distribution of Electoral College versus the population of the state, right?