Newsy Poll Of Moderate Voters In Swing States: 68% Biden, 26% Trump

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Moderate voters polled prefer former Vice President Joe Biden (68%) to incumbent President Donald Trump (26%).

Wednesday Newsy released new presidential polling data, collected through YouGov, surveying 1,000 likely moderate voters in the following key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.

The poll explores which candidate moderates are leaning towards most, what issues are driving their support for either candidate, the direction of the nation and more. Fieldwork was conducted from Sept. 28th, 2020 to Oct. 4th, 2020. 

Moderate voters polled prefer former Vice President Joe Biden (68%) to incumbent President Donald Trump (26%), with 6% indicating intent to vote for a third party or write-in candidate. Moderate voters cite division (64%), a worsening pandemic (60%) and a need to preserve American democracy (59%) as the top concerns motivating their vote.

Topline findings are outlined below, with the full data breakdown available here

1. Please think about Joe Biden’s stance on the following issues. Next, please select the three issues that make you MOST likely to vote for Biden in the 2020 Presidential election. 

2. Please think about Joe Biden’s stance on the following issues. Next, please select the three issues that make you LEAST likely to vote for Biden in the 2020 Presidential election. 

3. Please think about Donald Trump’s stance on the following issues. Next, please select the three issues that make you MOST likely to vote for Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. 

4. Please think about Donald Trump’s stance on the following issues. Next, please select the three issues that make you LEAST likely to vote for Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. 

5. Please select all of the following statements / concerns that you agree will impact who you decide to vote for in November. Please select all that apply. 

6. If the 2020 election for President was today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? 

7. Which candidate do you think would portray the best image of America to foreign leaders? 

8. Which candidate do you think would best handle foreign relations with potential adversary nations such as China, Iran, Russia or North Korea?  

9. Please think about Donald Trump’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. this year. How have his actions and statements impacted who you plan to vote for in the 2020 election for President?  

10. Please think about Joe Biden’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. this year. How have his actions and statements impacted who you plan to vote for in the 2020 election for President?  

11. Please think about violence surrounding recent police killings of Black Americans and subsequent demonstrations / protests over the past few months. How have these events, if at all, changed your support of the Black Lives Matter movement? 

12. Please think about Joe Biden’s response to the Black Lives Matter movement in the U.S. this year. How have his actions and statements impacted who you plan to vote for in the 2020 election for President? 

13. Please think about Donald Trump’s response to the Black Lives Matter movement in the U.S. this year. How have his actions and statements impacted who you plan to vote for in the 2020 election for President? 

14. Could Joe Biden do anything to convince you to vote for him before the November Presidential election? (Base: of respondents not already planning to vote for Biden or undecided; N=329, unweighted) 

15. Could Donald Trump do anything to convince you to vote for him before the November Presidential election? (Base: of respondents not already planning to vote for Trump or undecided; N=728 unweighted) 

16. Thinking about the moral leadership that Joe Biden or Donald Trump would provide, how will this impact who you plan to vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?  

* Small differences in totals due to rounding may be incurred.

About the Study: 

On behalf of Newsy, YouGov interviewed 1,362 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 Moderate Likely Voters to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, and state of residence. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements. 

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and state of residence. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on state of residence and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.