(Image source: Bloomberg)
BY JIM FLINK
Saber-rattling -- followed by a yawn? CBS reports.
“Iran is threatening to cut off oil to the West if new sanctions are put on their oil shipments. Iranian officials say they’ll close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, that it will be quote ‘easier than drinking a glass of water.’”
The Strait -- which runs between Iran and Oman -- is the source of 90 percent of Persian Gulf daily output, and 40 percent of the world’s daily consumption. Iran’s state-run Press TV quotes Iranian Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi....
“If they impose sanctions on Iran's oil, not even a drop of oil will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz ... We take no interest in animosity and hostility ... but the West will not end its scheming.”
President Obama is expected to sign a bill passed by Congress that would ban doing business with the Iran Central Bank. The Wall Street Journal has more background.
“The threat of additional sanctions on Iran is aimed at pressuring the country's nuclear program. … tensions between the West and Iran have been on the rise since the International Atomic Energy Agency in early November published a report accusing the country of taking steps toward nuclear weapons development.”
After a week of climbing on news of the tensions, Wednesday crude prices dropped back. A yawn -- after the storm?
The Washington Post says, this all sounds very familiar.
“Iran, which feels threatened by the presence of U.S. bases and warships in the region, has warned for years that it would choke off the strait in case of war or economic sanctions.”
Yes, it’s warned it for years, but not many analysts really expect the country would ever actually do it. For one, writes PolicyMic’s Andrew Pasternak, shutting the Strait of Hormuz would hurt Iran, too. In fact, he writes, it could even be suicidal.
“...such a maneuver would further alienate Iran from all of the Gulf countries. Iran already does not have good relations with Saudi Arabia or Bahrain... Iraq, whose Shiite-led government has better relations with Iran than most, would also be hurt... Around the world, countries would be less inclined to work with Iran, who would become even more of a global pariah.”
Crude prices continue to hover around 100 dollars a barrel. An analyst tells CNBC -- that’s a magic number.
Joe: “But if crude’s at 100 and for some reason gas is still down at three bucks, how does it affect, when does it start biting into the U.S. consumer?”
Michael: “Well, that’s a great point. And don’t fool yourself Joe, by pump prices.”
“Believe me, you’re going to feel it at the pump if you start seeing this market cement itself above 100.”
The U.S. Fifth Fleet Naval Commander -- based in Bahrain, tells Reuters any disruption to the oil flow in and out of Hormuz, will not be tolerated.