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BY GEORGE DUMONTIER
 

You're watching multisource business video news analysis from Newsy. 

Fewer people than expected filed for jobless benefits last week, dropping the figure below the magic number of 400,000.

Could it be the first step toward economic recovery -- or is it just a glitch in the system?  Here’s Fox business with the data.

“New weekly jobless numbers are in today. The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment claims actually dropped to 398,000 last week. That’s the lowest level since early April. It’s a sign the job market could be on the upswing after this long, long slump.”

That’s the tepid response.  CNBC -- has a little more upside.

“Wow! there is no 16th week above 400,000. 398,000 is the initial claims number. We’ve broken that streak.

“So I guess things just couldn’t get better on the claims side”

Generally, a number below 400,000 means that more jobs are being created than lost, but some are questioning whether the good news will last.  A CNN analyst says -- hold on to your party hats and kazoos.

“We really need to stay below that 400,000 level for the long term. This is just one report -- It’s positive, but it’s not enough.”

The four week average, which adjusts for week-to-week changes, remains a little high at about 414,000, but that’s also the lowest figure since April. So what caused last week to be so special? Market Watch says -- manufacturers could actually be causing some false hope.

“Claims often fall sharply in the third week of July as workers in certain parts of the manufacturing sector return to their jobs. Auto makers and some other manufacturers usually close plants earlier in the month to retool them to make the latest model of products.”

Almost everyone agrees -- the data is a good sign.  But amidst so many negative trends -- like rising gas prices and declining sales of new homes -- some remain skeptical. Economist Bob Brusca tells The Christian Science Monitor....

“It’s hard to understand why the labor market could be recovering when other things are not...The claims numbers lack the context of good news in other sectors to give it the air of authenticity.”

That authenticity could be confirmed on Friday when the government releases its estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
 

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Transcript by Newsy.