(Image Source: Wikimedia Commons)

BY BRIAN LEWIS

ANCHOR JIM FLINK

Conservative author Mark Helprin argues in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed while the U.S. may be taking a rational approach to the developing diplomatic crisis with Iran, Iran can’t be expected to reciprocate.

“To assume that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz is to assume that primitive religious fanatics will perform cost-benefit analyses the way they are done at Wharton. They won't, especially if the oil that is their life's blood is threatened.”

But not everyone in the media is as certain as Helprin that Iran wants war with the U.S.  Foreign Policy editor Blake Hounshell responded with a rhetorical tweet.

Blake Hounshell: “Is this the most ridiculous fear-mongering Iran op-ed yet?”

The threat to oil revenue that Helprin mentions stems from a strict U.S. embargo on Iran’s Central Bank that Congress added to this year’s controversial Defense Authorization Bill.

Under that law, the U.S. would impose tariffs on imports from countries that continue to do business with the Iranian Central Bank, including countries like China and Japan, both heavy U.S. trading partners who according to this chart from U.S. Global Investors, also buy a lot of Iranian crude. Those countries rely on the Central Bank to make their oil purchases. 

Then again, both China and Japan are under increasing pressure to reduce Iran oil imports. The Washington Post reports, China has cut its imports in half, while Reuters says Japan is considering similar moves.

Iran has thus far responded to the bank embargo by stepping up surveillance of a U.S. aircraft carrier group operating near the narrow Strait of Hormuz as well as threats to close the strait, vital to one fifth of the world’s oil transport, should the embargo continue.

Despite all of these moves that would seem to threaten the flow of oil, The Washington Post’s David Ignatius was on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. He had this to say about how the oil market could absorb the loss of Iranian crude from circulation.

“The best oil experts I've been able to talk to, I quote this morning, say there appears to be a buffer of about 3 million barrels a day, extra 2 million barrels from Saudi Arabia, extra 500,000 from more Libyan Iraqi production plus another 500,000. You have a cushion over and above, if you took out all Iranian oil, you'd still have a margin to satisfy customers.”

Reuters reports, Iran’s foreign minister on Thursday warned its neighbors that siding with the U.S. would be a “dangerous position.” Stay with Newsy for more on this developing story.