(Image source: The Huffington Post / Newsy)

BY ZACH TOOMBS

The narrow path Mitt Romney faced in gaining the necessary 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency looks to be getting a bit narrower.


It was a sound victory for the left. Of the nine major battleground states that were once seen as toss ups in the 2012 presidential election, Democrats won all but North Carolina. But tough electoral math for Republicans is not a new problem. (Via CBS News)

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post points out that, in the last six elections, Democrats have picked up 327 electoral votes on average — and Republicans, only 210 on average. In fact, the most votes picked up by a Republican in that time came in 2004, when President George W. Bush reached only 286. Compare that to President Barack Obama’s 332 votes this time around. (Via New York Times, Washington Post)

Much of those gains for Democrats have been attributed to shifts in the electorate — a shake up in the percentage of minority voters.

In 1996, non-white voters made up 10 percent of the electorate. Today, that number has more than doubled, to 21 percent. (Via ABC News)

And the fastest growing racial demographic, Hispanic Americans, voted heavily Democratic — 71 percent for Obama, only 27 percent for Romney. (Via CNN)

The number of Hispanic Americans grew from 35 to 50 million between 2000 and 2010. And several political pundits, including NBC’s Chuck Todd, believe that growth will put a few traditionally Republican southern states in play for Democrats.

“I think it means in 2016, you’re going to see Georgia, you’re going to see Texas and you’re going to see Arizona possibly in play because that’s where the Hispanic population has been booming.”

Arizona and Georgia were both fairly close this year — each within six points for the Democrats at one point, and that’s without any serious effort from the Obama campaign in those states.

But Texas? Romney won Texas by 17 points last week, and the state hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Though the state does have a few left-leaning up-and-comers including San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro. He recently told CNN he thinks Texas will be in play for Democrats in six or eight years, as long as his party actually tries to rally Hispanic voters there. (Via ABC News)

“In Texas, the investment in the ground game has not been made … Latinos in California are 10 percent less likely than the mainstream to vote. In Texas, they’re 25 percent less likely.”

If Texas does become a political battleground in 2020, it would most certainly be the crown jewel of swing states. It’s 38 electoral votes are worth Ohio and Pennsylvania combined.

That’s something Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas emphasized in an interview with The New Yorker this week. He said, without Texas in the GOP column...

“We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter … The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party.”

But it’s not as if Republicans won’t try to reshape the map for their benefit as well.

Even if Arizona and Georgia do turn blue, which is far from a sure bet, a series of northern states will be in play even with shifting demographics nationwide. That includes Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. (Via Huffington Post)

There’s also nothing to say the GOP can’t improve their status with minority voters, especially Latinos.

Immigration wasn’t the most important issue to Hispanic Americans in 2012, but headlines suggest a recent softening on immigration issues by some Republicans is a step to mend ties with Latinos — or at least open the door. (Via New York Times, New York Magazine, Wall Street Journal)

Electoral Map Could be Tougher for GOP in 2016

by Zach Toombs
1
Transcript
Nov 14, 2012

Electoral Map Could be Tougher for GOP in 2016

(Image source: The Huffington Post / Newsy)

BY ZACH TOOMBS

The narrow path Mitt Romney faced in gaining the necessary 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency looks to be getting a bit narrower.


It was a sound victory for the left. Of the nine major battleground states that were once seen as toss ups in the 2012 presidential election, Democrats won all but North Carolina. But tough electoral math for Republicans is not a new problem. (Via CBS News)

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post points out that, in the last six elections, Democrats have picked up 327 electoral votes on average — and Republicans, only 210 on average. In fact, the most votes picked up by a Republican in that time came in 2004, when President George W. Bush reached only 286. Compare that to President Barack Obama’s 332 votes this time around. (Via New York Times, Washington Post)

Much of those gains for Democrats have been attributed to shifts in the electorate — a shake up in the percentage of minority voters.

In 1996, non-white voters made up 10 percent of the electorate. Today, that number has more than doubled, to 21 percent. (Via ABC News)

And the fastest growing racial demographic, Hispanic Americans, voted heavily Democratic — 71 percent for Obama, only 27 percent for Romney. (Via CNN)

The number of Hispanic Americans grew from 35 to 50 million between 2000 and 2010. And several political pundits, including NBC’s Chuck Todd, believe that growth will put a few traditionally Republican southern states in play for Democrats.

“I think it means in 2016, you’re going to see Georgia, you’re going to see Texas and you’re going to see Arizona possibly in play because that’s where the Hispanic population has been booming.”

Arizona and Georgia were both fairly close this year — each within six points for the Democrats at one point, and that’s without any serious effort from the Obama campaign in those states.

But Texas? Romney won Texas by 17 points last week, and the state hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Though the state does have a few left-leaning up-and-comers including San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro. He recently told CNN he thinks Texas will be in play for Democrats in six or eight years, as long as his party actually tries to rally Hispanic voters there. (Via ABC News)

“In Texas, the investment in the ground game has not been made … Latinos in California are 10 percent less likely than the mainstream to vote. In Texas, they’re 25 percent less likely.”

If Texas does become a political battleground in 2020, it would most certainly be the crown jewel of swing states. It’s 38 electoral votes are worth Ohio and Pennsylvania combined.

That’s something Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas emphasized in an interview with The New Yorker this week. He said, without Texas in the GOP column...

“We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter … The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party.”

But it’s not as if Republicans won’t try to reshape the map for their benefit as well.

Even if Arizona and Georgia do turn blue, which is far from a sure bet, a series of northern states will be in play even with shifting demographics nationwide. That includes Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. (Via Huffington Post)

There’s also nothing to say the GOP can’t improve their status with minority voters, especially Latinos.

Immigration wasn’t the most important issue to Hispanic Americans in 2012, but headlines suggest a recent softening on immigration issues by some Republicans is a step to mend ties with Latinos — or at least open the door. (Via New York Times, New York Magazine, Wall Street Journal)

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